President Obama’s conundrum: What to do in Afghanistan, or is it Pakistan?
In recent weeks, President Obama has been meeting with his military and foreign affairs advisors regarding our mission in Afghanistan. General Stanley McCrystal has openly requested 40,000 more troops to “avoid failure” in Afghanistan. Why the delay in the decision? Perhaps it is a decision as to what our mission in Afghanistan is, and why Pakistan may well hold the trump card.
There are certain facts regarding Afghanistan, which cannot be overlooked. Unlike other nations, Afghanistan is tribal, with little national identity. The largest of these tribes or ethnic groups are the Pashtuns, which make up about 40 percent of the population. They are primarily located in a broad area from the center of the country to the southern border of Pakistan. The second largest tribe is the Tajiaks, who occupy from the center to the northeastern borders of the country and make up approximately 20 percent of the population. The next three tribes include the Uzbeks, the Hazaras and the Aimaq. There are at least eight more ethnic groups that make up what we know as Afghanistan. No foreign country has been successful in occupying the country. The only period when Afghanistan was ruled as a nation was by its own people, from 1709 to 1826, by the Ghilzai Empire to the Sadozai Durrani Empire, during which time they defeated the Persian Safavid Empire, which the mighty Ottoman Empire was unable to do. This is the base of their society. If our mission is nation building, it is a totally lost cause. If, however, our mission was to remove Al Qaeda from a stronghold in Afghanistan, then our mission is nearly complete. U.S. Intelligence estimates that there are no more than 100 members of Al Qaeda operating in Afghanistan. Where did the go? They went south to Pakistan and that will be the key for success, providing the elimination of Al Qaeda is our mission in Afghanistan.
As the Pashtuns pay little attention to international borders and more to tribal territory, there is no difference between being in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Among the Pushtuns are the Taliban, some of whom are loyal to Al Qaeda and some who are not. Pakistan has had an “understanding” with the Taliban since the fall of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, but that is quickly falling apart. Pakistan found this useful, while she centered her attention to India and the Kashmir District in their age old struggle for the territory. What has happened is that the Taliban has decided that they are no longer restricted to the Northern Territories of Pakistan, and are resisting any attempt to restrain them. Only recently has Pakistan begun to take the initiative against both Al Qaeda and those Taliban tribes who support them. Pakistan is caught in the middle of identifying who exactly, is the enemy? Here is where our mission should be focused.
Unfortunately, we may have to send in more troops into Afghanistan to try to complete our mission, but it would be for a short period. It all depends on what Pakistan does on the other side of the border. The first mission is to have India assure Pakistan that they are behind whatever measures it takes to secure its northern border. It is in India’s best interest, as the result of not doing so could bring an Islamic Fundamentalist regime to Islamabad, with nuclear capabilities. Although we cannot supply troops, nor do we want to; we can supply the Pakistan government extended military aid to deal with the Northern Territories. Our presence in the region is the problem, not the solution. If we can reinforce the obvious that Pakistan’s survival has little to do with India and has a great deal with the Taliban’s control of the Northern territories, our mission will be to assist to help secure the Southern Border of Afghanistan while Pakistan secures the Northern territories. It would be a joint military action, Afghan/NATO working with the Pakistani Army towards the border of Afghanistan. Will this solve the problem for Afghanistan? Unfortunately, it will probably do little to resolve what is irresolvable. More importantly, it will create a stronger Pakistan and that’s our present mission, whether we like it or not! As for Afghanistan, we join a long list of celebrities including Alexander the Great and the Safavid Empires to England and the Soviet Union who have been unsuccessful in achieving their mission. The central government remains corrupt and the tribal areas will pay more allegiance to their peers and to Islam than they will to Kabul. Our role in Afghanistan will be to train their armed forces and to supply them what they need for their nation building, not ours. We have no control as to what form of government the Afghans choose. Remember, it was the Northern Alliance and our Special Forces, which defeated the Taliban! We played a secondary role. Remember, it was the Afghanistan War which helped bring down the Soviet Union. We have a very short memory!
Dan Rather on Afghanistan
Comments
“Union of Afgahnistan and
“Union of Afgahnistan and Pakistan”.
By M. Akram Khan Niazi,Karachi,Pakistan
The only solution to the present problem of instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan is in the Union of these two countries based on principles of Democracy and Federalism.
In history, Durani Empire was composed of all the areas in which today's Pakistan and Afghanistan are located, and during the Mughal Empire together they were a single country. In the initial period of the British Empire, they were also the same country.
Later, some forces that had vested interests kept a distance between these lands. Consequently, border areas between these two countries became hiding places for criminals of both countries, thieves of automobiles and other stolen goods. They are stored in this region. This large uncontrollable area is a base for many evils.
Here narcotics are grown; addiction is destroying the youth and humanity. Because the region is not developed and poverty is rampant, people are attracted to extremism and militancy.
Union of both countries will make the single government more responsible in stabilizing this region and in satisfying the nationalistic pride of its inhabitants. People will be able to serve humanity as other large nations of the world do. Otherwise, this region will always remain a nuisance for the world. It destroyed Soviet Union. It may also take down the western world, which will be a great blow to the development of Science and Technology, especially Medical science.
Advantages to the world:
Control of terrorism:
Instability in this region is causing great damage to humanity. Soldiers of many countries are sacrificing their lives just to eliminate terrorists from these countries. In the presence of a unified government, it will be easier to control terrorists.
Control of extremism:
As a unified nation composed of multiethnic groups such as the Punjabis, Sindhis, Baluchis, Pashtuns, Urdu speakers, Tajiks, Persians and Hazaras, and as a multisectarian society such as Sunni and Shiites, it will become impossible for any ethnic group or religious sect to find any future in extremism.
Stabilization of the region:
Although it is now that the problems of this region have gained attention, it has suffered from instability for a long time. People here are finding no hope, no future for themselves, partly because of interference from foreign countries, such as the British Empire, Soviet Union, USA, China and India. When they were unified under the Durani Empire, the region was stable. The same was the case during the Mughal Empire.
There are three main groups in Asia, i.e. the Chinese, Hindus and Muslims. Chinese and Hindus are satisfied with their states of China and India. The Muslim population in Asia is greater than the Chinese and Hindus combined. However, having no comparable state of their own they experience the stress of inferiority. That element too is causing instability and irritation amongst common Muslims. By creating a unified state of Pakistan and Afghanistan, a sense of satisfaction, pride and respect of having a national state will be achieved. That might lead to normalization of relations with the rest of the world and stability.
Solution to economic problems
At present, both countries are burdens on others, and pose barriers in exploring the resources of Central Asia by the world. After stabilization, it will be useful not only for Central Asia and for the World, but also for the new unified nation itself.
Advantages to Pakistan:
It was the vision of Quaid-e-Azam, the Founder of Pakistan, to unify the regions of West Pakistan, Afghanistan, East Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia. That probably needs time. It took many centuries for Europeans to realize that they shared a common goal.
• By unification with Afghanistan, areas, which are included in Pakistan, will stabilize, and migration of people from disturbed areas will stop.
• Smuggling of weapons across the borders will end, and Law and Order will be established.
• Similarly, illicit drug trade will be minimized.
• Whole areas of Pukhtoons (Pashtuns) speaking population will unify, and that will help the development of culture and language of that group which is now divided in two nations.
• Expenses for Security measures on the borders will be minimal. The resultant balance can be used for the welfare of people.
• Interference of other nations in this region will subside.
• Due to unique historical importance for Buddhists and Hindus, tourism industry will flourish and business activity in the region will increase.
Advantages to Afghanistan:
• Through unification, Afghanistan will cease to be a land locked country. The union will promote freedom of people of Afghanistan to travel and engage in economic activity,
• Extremism and terrorism will come to and end, as the people will become more engaged and involved in adjusting themselves in the new union. Utilization of raw products of Afghanistan will increase.
• Security and military expenses will minimize.
• Doors to Pakistan will open to Afghanis who look for jobs in Pakistan.
• Shortage of food products in Afghanistan will decrease and it will increase the utilization of raw products of Afghanistan.
• Linking Central Asia via Afghanistan to the rest of the world will generate extraordinary development.
Based on above observations, suggestions and predictions, it is clear that unification of Pakistan and Afghanistan will be fruitful for everyone in the region and for the world at large.
Mr. M. Akram Khan Niazi can be reached at akrumniazi@hotmail.com
It is interesting that
It is interesting that someone would post as a Comment an article, written by A Mkram Kahn Niazi that appeared on plpolitics.com that was written on January 8, 2010. Although I am not a scholar, I believe that such a union would only bring more tension into that area, as it would appear to threaten India. If you look at a map of the region, the Jammu and Kashmir regions border on Afghanistan. At the present time, Pakistan is in control of that area, which is in dispute. Unification of both countries would strengthen Pakistan’s control as well as appear to legitimate it. With both Pakistan and India having nuclear weapons, the possibility of war would dangerously increase.
On the other hand, it would appear that unification of both countries would benefit both countries, as only a mountain range and an imaginary line separates them. Mr. Niazi has made a compelling argument for unification of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The “devil is in the details” when you look closely at the proposal as the proposed new nation would be split on fundamental religious and racial grounds that would undermine its survival. Pakistan is primarily Indian, except for the northern border regions. Afghanistan is made up of Punjabis, Sindhis, Baluchis, Pashtuns, Urdu speakers, Tajiks, Persians and Hazaras and more.
The problem is that the answer to Afghanistan lies with what happens in Pakistan. One reason that we are still there is that we are concerned as to what happens, not only to Afghanistan, but Pakistan as well when we leave. It’s one Hell of a predicament!
Thanks, but I’m not an
Thanks, but I’m not an expert on Afghanistan, the Middle East or East Asia. I just read History books and use a little common sense. The Russians did throw in more than the towel, as they were humiliated by the Mujahidin, who were helped by the U.S. with weapons brought over the Pakistan border to deal with the Russian’s conventional war machine. We’ve taken a slightly different approach which might have worked, had we stayed the course and not looked towards Iraq as a sponsor of Al Qaeda. Now, after eight years of “occupation”, the Afghanistan people look at us as invaders, who have taken up permanent residency. We dropped the ball when we had Al Qaeda in our sights. Now we have to find the quickest way to get out, without leaving a disaster. If it becomes a disaster after we leave, then it’s history repeating itself in Afghanistan.
That was most informative. I
That was most informative.
I am not a student of world affairs as you most certainly are.
I remember that the Russians " threw in the towel" and
they were not fettered by the "political correctness" we are
in their prosecution of the war.
Bob Thompson
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